Ontario facing electricity shortages

By RICHARD MACKIE
Globe and Mail
Tuesday, July 29, 2003 - Page A4

Ontario faces possible electricity shortages next month because of delays in bringing two nuclear-generating units back into operation, the agency responsible for overseeing supplies of energy warned yesterday.

In a worst-case scenario, Ontario residents might experience rolling blackouts, the report said.

The units at the Pickering plant and the Bruce Peninsula plant were to have returned to operation this month, which would have eased the squeeze on Ontario's hard-pressed electricity-generating system, the Independent Electricity Market Operator said in a special report.

But last-minute glitches at the two plants have pushed back their restart dates.

"If we get a hot-weather period where the demand is high and where the system gets tight again we could be in a similar situation as last summer," said Terry Young, spokesman for the IMO. Supplies were so tight during hot days last summer that the IMO was forced to buy high-priced power from outside the province.

Together the two units would provide about 1,300 megawatts of power, or about 5 per cent of the peak demand in the province.

Further stretching electricity supplies next month will be the fact that scheduled shutdowns of some generating plants for regular maintenance have been switched to August and September from October.

This maintenance has to be performed before cold weather starts adding to the strains on the system. A large number of plants were to be out of service in October so some shutdowns have been moved forward.

The IMO won't even guarantee that the risks of electricity shortages will be over in September, given the fact that three of Ontario's eight out-of-service nuclear plants have not met earlier timetables for their restart.

It noted in its special report "the risks associated with the return-to-service dates of units from long-term lay-up." And it cautioned, "The IMO considers that some risk persists with the updated information."

Mr. Young noted that temperatures in July have been comparatively moderate, reducing stress on the system.

"We did see a period at the end of June where it was hot, it was muggy. It lasted for about a week and at that point we were in the same situation as we were last summer when we were buying a lot of power" from outside the province, he said.

When Ontario's generating capacity cannot meet demand, the IMO buys power from Quebec, Manitoba and the United States. But such purchases, which are much more costly than power produced within the province, are restricted by the limited number of lines to import electricity from outside the province.

IMO's contingency plans if Ontario does not have enough electricity to meet demand provide first for a slight voltage cut, then for preannounced rotating blackouts. The province has not faced a shortage severe enough to force it to implement these measures.

The Bruce unit is the first of two plants operated by Bruce Power that are scheduled to come back into service this summer after being shut down for almost six years.

Now the IMO reports: "Bruce Power advises they are planning for unit 4 to produce first power in August and be fully dispatchable [reliably providing power] shortly thereafter. Unit 3 is planned to follow about one month later."

The delay has boosted the costs of rehabilitating the two units to $610-million from $450-million previously reported.

Ontario Power Generation owns the other unit that is scheduled to come back into service. It is at Pickering and is one of four units in Ontario's first nuclear-generating station that are to be rebuilt and returned to operation.

That project is several years behind schedule, and estimated costs have soared to $2.5-billion from $800-million.